外汇市场下周预测－2008.12.22一周

淘金

关于美元的预测如下：

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 12.22.08

The US dollar has many fundamental reasons to pull back, however,over the next week the big question is: what sort of price action willwe see?
   

Dollar May Be Relegated to Ranges Amidst Holiday Trading




Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bearish

-    US dollar plummeted with 10-year Treasury yields after the Fed slashed rates to 0.0% - 0.25%, suggested quantitative easing
-    The outlook for banks remains bleak as S&P downgraded the credit ratings of 12 financial institutions
-    The White House stepped in to create a $17.4B bailout for GM, Chrysler with TARP funding

The US dollar has many fundamental reasons to pull back, including: the White House’s auto bailout that may help to boost risk sentiment, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate cut last week, and the prospect of quantitative easing that could drive long-term interest rates lower. However, over the next week, the big question is: what sort of price action will we see? With the Christmas holiday looming on December 25, many of the world’s financial markets will close and trading volumes will fall dramatically. Thin markets have a tendency to result in either very choppy or very quiet price action. Given the volatility seen recently, there’s a greater risk that these sorts of trends will continue, but they may ultimately leave the US dollar consolidating above its recent lows within wide ranges.

Data wise, the final round of US GDP readings for the third quarter is not expected to show any revisions upon release at 8:30 ET on December 23. Indeed, annualized GDP is forecasted to go unchanged at -0.5 percent, while personal consumption is expected to hold at -3.7 percent. It will likely take a surprisingly low result to illicit any sort of reaction from the markets, as traders are already well aware that economic conditions in the US remain dismal. Meanwhile, economic releases due out at 8:30 ET on December 24 are likely to be broadly disappointing and add to indications that the US recession only worsened during Q4. Indeed, personal spending in the US is forecasted to have fallen negative for the fifth straight month in November at a rate of -0.7 percent, while durable goods orders are expected to have dropped 3.0 percent, marking the fourth straight month that demand has either stagnated or declined.  - TB

淘金

The euro enjoyed a strong rally this past week, but was this a signof optimism in European growth and interest rates or a mere retracementborne from the need to quickly diversify away from the US dollar? Thiswill be a pivotal question for the FX market’s second most liquidcurrency when fundamental traders come back in full force at thebeginning of 2009.
   
Euro: Are Growth And Rates As Stable As The Markets Would Suggest?
Fundamental Outlook for Euro: Bearish
-    ECB monthly report forecasts economic recession to crest in 2009
-    Service sector activity contracts a seventh consecutive month, inflation cools to near-target
-    Central bank announces plans to cut interest paid on back deposits, increase emergency lending rate
The euro enjoyed a strong rally this past week, but was this a signof optimism in European growth and interest rates or a mere retracementborne from the need to quickly diversify away from the US dollar? Thiswill be a pivotal question for the FX market’s second most liquidcurrency when fundamental traders come back in full force at thebeginning of 2009. What’s more, sorting out the forecast for the euromay actually clarify the dollar’s path through the coming weeks.Crunching the numbers, the euro’s rally last week was the biggest sincethe currency began trading nearly a decade ago. However, this strongmomentum was predominately reflected against the dollar and pound - theeconomies that have fared the worst through the ongoing credit crunchand global recession. Against the popular risk-averse currencies (yenand franc) and the high-risk units (Australian and New Zealanddollars), the euro was actually loosing ground or held relativelystable. This suggests that the euro was not taking on the title of asafe haven currency. Instead, it seems traders are just liquidatingtheir built up dollar positions before year end and were responding tothe Fed’s rate cut or the pending auto industry collapse. With thedollar tumbling quickly, investors needed a secure alternative and theeuro’s deep liquidity gave the currency a leg up.
Looking out over the final weeks of 2008 and into the open of thenew year, the euro’s path will depend upon the influence of riskappetite on broader investor sentiment. If the demand for a safe havenis as overwhelming as it has been over the past quarter, the euro mayonce again be snubbed by capital that flows into the US and Japan forrisk-free government debt. On the other hand, if the market sours onthese economies or if sweeping risk aversion lets up, traders may startlooking to growth and interest rate potential as a market driver. Inthe past few weeks, rhetoric from the ECB has shifted back to neutralterritory. Further commentary from bank members or President JeanClaude Trichet himself would go a long way towards securing the euro’scurrent 2.50 percent benchmark rate - which would be a considerablepremium over most of its counterparts when the demand for yield beginsto gain ground on aversion to risk.

Outside of interest rates, the fundamental forecast is certainly notencouraging; but in the currency market, strength is a relativemeasurement. Looking at scheduled event risk, there will be readingsfor both inflation and economic activity for traders to work with.Following up on the plunge in the Euro-Zone’s year-over-year CPIreading to just above the ECB’s target, the German producer price indexfor December will take the measure of upstream inflation that will feedthrough to the consumer later. Later, the docket will go straight tothe heart of potential growth with the German GfK consumer confidencesurvey for December. If sentiment maintains its negative trajectory,there will be little hope for domestic demand to offset the void inforeign orders. - JK

淘金

The British Pound tumbledagainst all major currencies, as a steady wave of dismal economic datadoomed the Sterling to further losses. Deterioration in Bank of Englandinterest rate outlook and a larger-than-expected British unemploymentrate gain further cast further gloom on fundamental sentiment, andthere seemed to be no respite to the steady stream of bearish reports.Limited economic data in the holiday-shortened trading week ahead makesmajor shifts in outlook highly unlikely, and the British Pound maycontinue to decline absent a clear shift in trader sentiment.
   

Fundamental Outlook for British Pound: Bearish
- British pound tumbles to record low versus euro on biggest-ever decline
- Bank of England Minutes show decision was unanimous to cut rates by 100bp
It remains extremely difficult to predict what willhappen through illiquid year-end forex trading--especially as globaleconomic calendars remain virtually empty. The fact that many of theworld’s major banks will essentially remain inactive means that marketconditions will be especially illiquid. In 2007, extremely thinyear-end market conditions meant that a relatively marginal amount ofUS dollar selling sent it significantly lower against major forexcounterparts. Yet in many previous instances, holiday-shortened weekshave brought relatively uneventful trading.
Regardless of what happens in the week ahead,medium-term British Pound momentum remains firmly to the downside. TheBritish currency has already seen its worst trade-weighted depreciationsince it left the gold standard in 1931. Such an overwhelming downtrenddoes not end overnight, and our longer-term forecasts remain bearishfor the British currency. In the meantime, however, our SeniorStrategist believes that thePound could set a significant bottom against major forex counterparts.  - DR

淘金

Risk aversion is the key to the Japaneseyen’s path over the next few weeks and into the beginning of 2009.However, the ebb and flow in market sentiment will be far fromstraightforward. Heading into the end of the year, liquidity will putan unusual spin on volatility and the demand for a safe haven currency.
   

Japanese Yen Bolsters Its Anti-Carry Status After BoJ Rate Cut
Fundamental Outlook for Japanese Yen: Bullish
- The Bank of Japan cuts rates to 0.10 percent and announces plans to purchase commercial paper, more government debt
- Risk sentiment still volatile with $17.4 billion US auto bailout countered by downgrade of the broad financial sector
- Both the yen and dollar compete for position as the currency market’s top funding currency
Risk aversion is the key to the Japanese yen’s path over the nextfew weeks and into the beginning of 2009. However, the ebb and flow inmarket sentiment will be far from straightforward. Heading into the endof the year, liquidity will put an unusual spin on volatility and thedemand for a safe haven currency. Historically, the currency market(like most others) will thin out substantially as traders exit themarket in observation of holidays or to close the books for theaccounting year. We have already seen such effects on activity thispast week. The pullback in the massive bear rally in the US dollar islikely just such a pullback from extremes that comes with positionsquaring.
Looking at the major themes that have driven investors predominatelyto risk aversion over the past months, the markets will likely turnback to the hunt for a safe haven when liquidity is no longer warpingconditions. Heading up this general market shift will be the outlookfor growth. Most of the industrialized world’s third quarter GDPnumbers have crossed the wires; and they have easily put the globaleconomy on the path to recession. Far more concerning though have beenforecasts for activity through 2009. Projections by central banks andgovernments (typically conservative prognosticators) are pointing tothe most severe recession in decades for many countries. The greaterissue however remains health of investor and lender confidence. Withcentral bank’s offering virtually unlimited levels of liquidity andever-expanding guarantees on funds, banks see little reason to take therisk in extending loans to each other or consumers. This has led to aconundrum where the basic operation of the global credit market dependsupon these vital infusions, but it is simultaneously holding theprogress back. What’s more, as long as this stalemate exists,financials institutions and major economic sectors will come closer andcloser to failure. Just this past week, Standard & Poor’s announcedit was cutting the credit rating of 12 major banks. With interest ratesat record lows, the credit squeeze depressing asset values and consumerspending fading, the banking sector may be facing another round ofbankruptcy scares and/or credit crunch. Add to that the threat of themajor industries teetering on the verge of collapse (the US auto rescuepackage won’t go far); and the reign of pessimism will have to breaksoon if the global economy is to ward off disaster.
Ironically enough, the Japanese yen may actually find a greater (orat least more concise) reaction to scheduled event risk than theinfluence of risk sentiment. With low levels of liquidity naturallydrawing the capital to safe havens through the end of the year, themarket’s remaining event risk traders will be able to respond to thebusiest economic docket among the G10. In the week ahead, the Bank ofJapan will release its monthly report and the minutes for its Novemberrate decision. The minutes will be interesting as it will betterreflect whether the BoJ’s rate cut to 0.10 percent last Friday was dueto the countries own fundamentals or in response to the Fed’s movetowards zero. From a trading perspective however, the monthly reportwill be far more market moving with the group’s assessment of growthand financial conditions. Without doubt, Friday’s session holds thegreatest weight over the market. Readings on housing, employment,consumer income, spending, inflation and industrial production are allscheduled for release. In general, this will be a good update onoverall economic activity - though expectations should be restrained. -JK